Qualcuno può spiegare la distorsione temporale dinamica per determinare la somiglianza con le serie temporali?

Sto cercando di cogliere la misura della distorsione temporale dinamica per confrontare le serie temporali insieme. Ho tre set di dati di serie storiche come questo:

T1 <- structure(c(0.000213652387565, 0.000535045478866, 0, 0, 0.000219346347883, 
0.000359669104424, 0.000269469145783, 0.00016051364366, 0.000181950509461, 
0.000385579332948, 0.00078170803205, 0.000747244535774, 0, 0.000622858922454, 
0.000689084895259, 0.000487983408564, 0.000224744353298, 0.000416449765747, 
0.000308388157895, 0.000198906016907, 0.000179549331179, 9.06289650172e-05, 
0.000253506844685, 0.000582896161212, 0.000386473429952, 0.000179839942451, 
0, 0.000275608635737, 0.000622665006227, 0.00036075036075, 0.00029057097196, 
0.000353232073472, 0.000394710874285, 0.000207555002076, 0.000402738622634, 
0, 0.000309693403531, 0.000506521463847, 0.000226988991034, 0.000414164423276, 
9.6590360282e-05, 0.000476689865573, 0.000377572210685, 0.000378967314069, 
9.25240562546e-05, 0.000172309813044, 0.000447627573859, 0, 0.000589333071408, 
0.000191699415317, 0.000362943471554, 0.000287549122975, 0.000311688311688, 
0.000724112961622, 0.000434656621269, 0.00122292103424, 0.00177549812586, 
0.00308008213552, 0.00164338537387, 0.00176056338028, 0.00180072028812, 
0.00258939580764, 0.00217548948513, 0.00493015612161, 0.00336344416683, 
0.00422716412424, 0.00313360554553, 0.00540144648906, 0.00425728829246, 
0.0046828437633, 0.00397219463754, 0.00501656412683, 0.00492700729927, 
0.00224424911165, 0.000634696755994, 0.00120550276557, 0.00125313283208, 
0.00164551010813, 0.00143575017947, 0.00237006940918, 0.00236686390533, 
0.00420336269015, 0.00329840900272, 0.00242005185825, 0.00326554846371, 
0.006217237596, 0.0037103784586, 0.0038714672861, 0.00455830066551, 
0.00361747518783, 0.00304147465438, 0.00476801760499, 0.00569875504121, 
0.00583855136233, 0.0050566695728, 0.0042220072126, 0.00408237321963, 
0.00255222610833, 0.00123507616303, 0.00178136133508, 0.00147434637311, 
0.00126742712294, 0.00186590371937, 0.00177226406735, 0.00249154653853, 
0.00549127279859, 0.00349072202829, 0.00348027842227, 0.00229555236729, 
0.00336862367661, 0.00383477593952, 0.00273999412858, 0.00349618180145, 
0.00376108175875, 0.00383351588171, 0.00368928059028, 0.00480028982882, 
0.00388823582602, 0.00745054380406, 0.0103754506287, 0.00822677278011, 
0.00778350981989, 0.0041831792162, 0.00537228238059, 0.00723645609231, 
0.0144428396845, 0.00893333333333, 0.0106231171714, 0.0158367059652, 
0.01811729548, 0.0207095263821, 0.0211700064641, 0.017604180993, 
0.0165804327375, 0.0188679245283, 0.0191859923629, 0.0269251008595, 
0.0351239669421, 0.0283510318573, 0.0346557651212, 0.0270022042616, 
0.0260845175767, 0.0349758630112, 0.0207069247809, 0.0106362024818, 
0.00981093510475, 0.00916507201128, 0.00887198986058, 0.0073929115025, 
0.00659077291791, 0.00716191546131, 0.00942304513143, 0.0106886280007, 
0.0123527175979, 0.0171022290546, 0.0142909490656, 0.0157642220699, 
0.0265140538974, 0.0194395354708, 0.0241685144124, 0.0229897123662, 
0.017921889568, 0.0155115839714, 0.0145263157895, 0.017609281127, 
0.0157671315949, 0.0190258751903, 0.0138453217956, 0.00958058335108, 
0.0122924304507, 0.00929741151611, 0.00885235535884, 0.00509319462505, 
0.0061314863177, 0.0063104189044, 0.00729117134253, 0.010843373494, 
0.0217755443886, 0.0181687353841, 0.0155402963498, 0.017310022503, 
0.0214746959003, 0.026357827476, 0.0194751217195, 0.0196820590462, 
0.0184317400812, 0.0130208333333, 0.0128666035951, 0.0120045731707, 
0.0122374253228, 0.00874940561103, 0.0114368092263, 0.00922893718369, 
0.00479041916168, 0.00644107774653, 0.00775830595108, 0.00829578041786, 
0.00681348095875, 0.00573782551125, 0.00772002058672, 0.0112488083889, 
0.00908907291456, 0.0157722638969, 0.00994270306707, 0.0134179772039, 
0.0126050420168, 0.0113648781554, 0.0153894803415, 0.0126959699913, 
0.0116655865198, 0.0112065745237, 0.0122006737686, 0.010251878038, 
0.010891174691, 0.0148273273273, 0.0138516532618, 0.0136552722011, 
0.00986993819758, 0.0097852677358, 0.00889011089726, 0.00816723383568, 
0.00917641660931, 0.00884466556108, 0.0182179529646, 0.0183156760639, 
0.0217806648835, 0.0171099125907, 0.0186579938377, 0.019360390076, 
0.0144603654529, 0.0177730696798, 0.0153226598566, 0.0134016909516, 
0.0126480805202, 0.0115501519757, 0.0127156322248, 0.0124326204138, 
0.0240245215806, 0.0130234933606, 0.0144222706691, 0.00854005693371, 
0.0053560967445, 0.00504132231405, 0.00288778877888, 0.00593526847816, 
0.00455653279644, 0.00433014040152, 0.00535770564135, 0.0131095962244, 
0.0126319758673, 0.0154982879798, 0.0125940464508, 0.0169948745616, 
0.0257535512184, 0.0256175663312, 0.0265191262043, 0.0228974403622, 
0.0193122555411, 0.0165794768612, 0.015658837248, 0.0168208578638, 
0.0129912843282, 0.0119498443154, 0.0112663755459, 0.00838112042347, 
0.00925767186696, 0.0113408269771, 0.0210861519924, 0.0156036134684, 
0.0121687119728, 0.011006497812, 0.0107891491985, 0.0134615384615, 
0.0147229755909, 0.015756893641, 0.0176257128046, 0.016776075857, 
0.0169553999263, 0.0179193118984, 0.0190055672874, 0.0183088625509, 
0.0155489923558, 0.0152507401094, 0.0160748342567, 0.0161532350605, 
0.0139190952588, 0.0161469457497, 0.0118186629035, 0.0109259765092, 
0.00950587391265, 0.00928986154533, 0.00815520645549, 0.00702576112412, 
0.00709539362541, 0.00827287768869, 0.0104688211197, 0.0130375888927, 
0.0160891089109, 0.0188415910677, 0.0203265044814, 0.0183175033921, 
0.0139940353292, 0.0124648170487, 0.0131685758095, 0.00957428620277, 
0.0119647893342, 0.00835800104475, 0.0101892285298, 0.00904207699194, 
0.00772134522992, 0.00740740740741, 0.00776823249863, 0.00642254601227, 
0.00484237572883, 0.00361539964823, 0.00414811817078, 0.00358072916667, 
0.00433306007729, 0.00485008818342, 0.00905280804694, 0.00931847250137, 
0.00779271381259, 0.00779912497622, 0.00908230842006, 0.0058152538582, 
0.0102777777778, 0.00807537012113, 0.00648535564854, 0.0145492582731, 
0.00694127317563, 0.00759878419453, 0.00789242911429, 0.00635050701629, 
0.00785233530492, 0.00607964332759, 0.00531968282646, 0.00361944157187, 
0.00305157155935, 0.00276327909119, 0.00318820364651, 0.00184464029514, 
0.00412550211703, 0.00516567972786, 0.00463655399342, 0.00702897308418, 
0.0100714154917, 0.00791168353266, 0.00959190791768, 0.00736, 
0.00738007380074, 0.012573964497, 0.0117919562013, 0.00842919476398, 
0.00778887565289, 0.00623967700496, 0.0062232955601, 0.00447815755803, 
0.00511135450894, 0.00502557659517, 0.00330328263712), .Tsp = c(1, 
15.9583333333333, 24), class = "ts")

T2 <- structure(c(0, 0, 0, 0, 0.000109673173942, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9.66183574879e-05, 0, 
0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 9.43930526713e-05, 
0, 0, 0, 8.95255147717e-05, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0.000191699415317, 0.000207792207792, 
0, 0, 0, 0.00019727756954, 0.000205338809035, 0.000205423171734, 
0.000704225352113, 0.000450180072029, 0.000493218249075, 0.000120860526952, 
0.000410846343468, 0.000384393619066, 0.000643264105863, 0.000189915487608, 
0.000915499404925, 0.000185099490976, 0.000936568752661, 0.000451385754266, 
0.000757217226692, 0.000273722627737, 0.000187020759304, 0.000211565585331, 
0.000141823854772, 9.63948332369e-05, 0.000117536436295, 0.000287150035894, 
0, 0, 0.000400320256205, 0.000388048117967, 0.000345721694036, 
0.000296868042155, 0.000609533097647, 0.000424043252412, 0.000290360046458, 
0.000546996079861, 0.000556534644282, 0.00036866359447, 0.000275077938749, 
0.000964404699281, 0.00152310035539, 0.00113339145597, 0.00061570938517, 
0.000362877619523, 0.000472634464505, 0.000102923013586, 0.000187511719482, 
0.000294869274622, 0.00011522064754, 0.000248787162582, 0, 0.00035593521979, 
0.000392233771328, 0.000551166636046, 0.000165727543918, 0.000143472022956, 
0.00012030798845, 0.000438260107374, 0.000195713866327, 0.000184009568498, 
0.000537297394108, 0.000365096750639, 0.000102480016397, 0.000452857531021, 
0.000180848177955, 0.000770745910765, 0.00219818869252, 0.000357685773048, 
0.000362023712553, 0.000660501981506, 0.000419709560984, 0.000488949735967, 
0.00177758026886, 4e-04, 0.000475661962898, 0.000879816998064, 
0.0014942099365, 0.00378173960022, 0.00274725274725, 0.00192545729611, 
0.0016462841016, 0.00176238855484, 0.00260780478718, 0.00447289949132, 
0.0034435261708, 0.00290522941294, 0.002694416055, 0.0041329904482, 
0.00729244577412, 0.0296930503689, 0.00982375036117, 0.00453023439039, 
0.00327031170158, 0.00221573169503, 0.00211237853823, 0.00108719286801, 
0.00131815458358, 0.000983008004494, 0.00132253265002, 0.00227790432802, 
0.00247054351957, 0.00307455803228, 0.0029314767314, 0.00222755311857, 
0.00492610837438, 0.00454430699318, 0.00753880266075, 0.00671845475541, 
0.00590490003108, 0.00288356368698, 0.00294736842105, 0.00248601615911, 
0.00197089144936, 0.00326157860404, 0.00302866414278, 0.00202256759634, 
0.00258788009489, 0.00169043845747, 0.00137000737696, 0.000433463372345, 
0.000908368343363, 0.000805585392052, 0.00142653352354, 0.00189328743546, 
0.00558347292016, 0.00161899622234, 0.00162631008312, 0.00276960360048, 
0.00585673524553, 0.00519169329073, 0.0045125282033, 0.00562344544176, 
0.00322815786733, 0.00330528846154, 0.00255439924314, 0.00285823170732, 
0.00240894199268, 0.00218735140276, 0.00201826045171, 0.00168701002282, 
0.000460617227084, 0.00127007166833, 0.00109529025192, 0.000819336337567, 
0.00158170093685, 0.000588494924231, 0.00120089209127, 0.00305052430887, 
0.00161583518481, 0.00211579149837, 0.0010111223458, 0.00346270379455, 
0.00228091236495, 0.00207627581685, 0.00295140718878, 0.0022121765894, 
0.00240718451995, 0.00224131490474, 0.0031867431485, 0.00176756517897, 
0.00233382314807, 0.00178303303303, 0.00169794459339, 0.00162778079219, 
0.000737939304492, 0.00135906496331, 0.000733205022454, 0.000875060768109, 
0.00114705207616, 0.000967385295744, 0.00182179529646, 0.00359130903214, 
0.00420328620558, 0.00446345545843, 0.00376583361862, 0.00659687365553, 
0.00433810963586, 0.00353107344633, 0.00333955407131, 0.00341788091383, 
0.0024939877082, 0.00538428137212, 0.00906989151698, 0.00773778473309, 
0.0210421671775, 0.00859720803541, 0.00511487506289, 0.00406669377796, 
0.00117164616286, 0.00206611570248, 0.00107260726073, 0.00148381711954, 
0.000741761152909, 0.00104973100643, 0.00110305704381, 0.00209753539591, 
0.00452488687783, 0.00486574157506, 0.00850507033039, 0.0101159967629, 
0.0163991223005, 0.0150452373691, 0.0156443766097, 0.0112310639039, 
0.00635593220339, 0.00627766599598, 0.00583041812427, 0.00622371740959, 
0.00624897220852, 0.00420769166036, 0.00305676855895, 0.00291133656815, 
0.00120006857535, 0.00501806503412, 0.00490575781048, 0.00593119810202, 
0.00226874291018, 0.00304999336958, 0.00339087546239, 0.00541958041958, 
0.00445563734986, 0.00431438754455, 0.0038016243304, 0.0037928519329, 
0.00491460867428, 0.00460782305959, 0.00508734881935, 0.00300725278613, 
0.00390896455872, 0.00367811967345, 0.00953591862683, 0.00529614264278, 
0.00243584167029, 0.00427167876976, 0.00291056623743, 0.00227624510607, 
0.00439422473321, 0.00232246538633, 0.00317623830372, 0.00263466042155, 
0.00180200473026, 0.00190912562047, 0.0034896070399, 0.00338638672536, 
0.00548090523338, 0.00697836706211, 0.00720230473752, 0.00746268656716, 
0.00367056664373, 0.0032167269803, 0.00523135203391, 0.00299196443837, 
0.00299119733356, 0.00287306285913, 0.00154657933042, 0.00214861235452, 
0.00163006177076, 0.00157407407407, 0.00137086455858, 0.00124616564417, 
0.000790591955727, 0.00107484854407, 0.00121408336706, 0.00108506944444, 
0.00105398758637, 0.000881834215168, 0.00184409052808, 0.00237529691211, 
0.0013637249172, 0.00190222560396, 0.00264900662252, 0.00156564526951, 
0.00263888888889, 0.00183531139117, 0.00303347280335, 0.0120768352986, 
0.00365330167139, 0.00351443768997, 0.00263080970476, 0.0029703984431, 
0.00265143789517, 0.0014185834431, 0.00150557061126, 0.00144777662875, 
0.00111890957176, 0.000716405690308, 0.000797050911627, 0.000512400081984, 
0.000868526761481, 0.00113392969636, 0.00134609632067, 0.00240013715069, 
0.00128181651712, 0.00110395584177, 0.00156958493198, 0.00208, 
0.00184501845018, 0.00110946745562, 0.000736997262582, 0.00208250694169, 
0.00229084578026, 0.00137639933933, 0.00111462010032, 0.000822518735149, 
0.00200803212851, 0.000987166831194, 0.00041291032964), .Tsp = c(1, 
15.9583333333333, 24), class = "ts")

T3 <- structure(c(0.00192287148809, 0.00149812734082, 0.00192410475681, 
0.00151122625216, 0.00120640491336, 0.00167845582065, 0.00121261115602, 
0.000802568218299, 0.00109170305677, 0.00250626566416, 0.00273597811218, 
0.00242854474127, 0.00160915430002, 0.00124571784491, 0.00192943770673, 
0.00329388800781, 0.00191032700303, 0.00156168662155, 0.00174753289474, 
0.0014917951268, 0.00143639464943, 0.000543773790103, 0.000929525097178, 
0.00141560496294, 0.000966183574879, 0.000719359769805, 0.00190740419629, 
0.00137804317869, 0.00197177251972, 0.001443001443, 0.00203399680372, 
0.00158954433063, 0.00256562068285, 0.00228310502283, 0.00302053966975, 
0.00227352221056, 0.00263239393001, 0.00202608585539, 0.00272386789241, 
0.00269206875129, 0.0027045300879, 0.00276480122033, 0.00405890126487, 
0.00341070582662, 0.00351591413768, 0.00336004135436, 0.00358102059087, 
0.00257289879931, 0.00235733228563, 0.00239624269146, 0.00136103801833, 
0.000862647368926, 0.00145454545455, 0.00168959691045, 0.00246305418719, 
0.0020964360587, 0.00335371868219, 0.00390143737166, 0.00349219391947, 
0.00334507042254, 0.00255102040816, 0.00332922318126, 0.00386753686246, 
0.00246507806081, 0.00432442821449, 0.00312442565705, 0.00408318298357, 
0.00375354756019, 0.00416473854697, 0.00263942103023, 0.0028888688273, 
0.00321817321344, 0.00310218978102, 0.002150738732, 0.00296191819464, 
0.00134732662034, 0.00221708116445, 0.00152797367184, 0.00157932519742, 
0.00220077873709, 0.00207100591716, 0.00260208166533, 0.00310438494373, 
0.00311149524633, 0.00385928454802, 0.00292575886871, 0.00222622707516, 
0.00329074719319, 0.00282614641262, 0.00287542899545, 0.00221198156682, 
0.00311754997249, 0.00315623356128, 0.00287696733796, 0.00296425457716, 
0.00263875450787, 0.00208654631226, 0.00179601096512, 0.00164676821737, 
0.00206262891431, 0.00235895419697, 0.00241963359834, 0.0028610523697, 
0.00516910352976, 0.00160170848905, 0.00254951951363, 0.00275583318023, 
0.00298309579052, 0.00286944045911, 0.00288739172281, 0.00394434096636, 
0.00254428026226, 0.00285214831171, 0.0034924330617, 0.00246440306681, 
0.00266448042632, 0.00389457476678, 0.00253187449136, 0.00171276869059, 
0.00184647850171, 0.00134132164893, 0.00153860077835, 0.000990752972259, 
0.00117518677075, 0.00312927831019, 0.00188867903566, 0.0024, 
0.00269541778976, 0.00263945099419, 0.00242809114681, 0.00378173960022, 
0.00274725274725, 0.00165039196809, 0.00211665098777, 0.00290275761974, 
0.00149017416411, 0.00105244693913, 0.00309917355372, 0.00240432779002, 
0.00297314875035, 0.0015613519471, 0.00196335078534, 0.00227707441479, 
0.00279302706347, 0.00295450068938, 0.00316811446091, 0.00211501661799, 
0.00168990283059, 0.00195694716243, 0.00131815458358, 0.00112343771942, 
0.00214911555629, 0.00157701068863, 0.00171037628278, 0.00230591852421, 
0.00183217295713, 0.00102810143934, 0.00130396986381, 0.00151476899773, 
0.00188470066519, 0.00220449296662, 0.00238267895991, 0.00238639753406, 
0.00147368421053, 0.00113942407292, 0.0018192844148, 0.00152207001522, 
0.00151433207139, 0.00117096018735, 0.000862626698296, 0.00095087163233, 
0.00137000737696, 0.00119202427395, 0.00170319064381, 0.000805585392052, 
0.0012680297987, 0.00189328743546, 0.00186115764005, 0.000719553876597, 
0.000903505601735, 0.000865501125151, 0.00210241778045, 0.00146432374867, 
0.00130625816411, 0.0011895749973, 0.00135374362178, 0.00120192307692, 
0.00160832544939, 0.0015243902439, 0.00240894199268, 0.00218735140276, 
0.00230658337338, 0.00188548179022, 0.0016582220175, 0.00263086274154, 
0.00155166119022, 0.00204834084392, 0.00194670884536, 0.00308959835221, 
0.00154400411734, 0.00152526215443, 0.00343364976772, 0.00269282554337, 
0.00235928547354, 0.00230846919636, 0.00300120048019, 0.00327833023713, 
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0.00167193015047, 0.00201060135259, 0.00219058050383, 0.00233330341919, 
0.000963457435827), .Tsp = c(1, 15.9583333333333, 24), class = "ts")

So che T1 e T2 sono correlati e li considerano come verità di base, quindi qualsiasi metrica di distanza dovrebbe dirmi che (T1, T2) sono più vicini di (T2, T3) e (T1, T3). Tuttavia, quando si utilizza dtwin R, sto ottenendo il seguente:

> dtw(T1, T2, k = TRUE)$distance; dtw(T1, T3, k = TRUE)$distance; dtw(T3, T2, k = TRUE)$distance
[1] 1.107791
[1] 1.568011
[1] 0.4102962

Qualcuno può spiegare come utilizzare Dynamic Time Warping per le query del vicino più vicino?

La distorsione temporale dinamica fa un presupposto particolare sul set di dati: un vettore è una serie non lineare a tempo allungato dell'altro. Ma presuppone anche che i valori attuali siano sulla stessa scala.

$x=1..10000$$a(x)=1\cdot\sin(0.01*x)$$b(x)=1\cdot\sin(0.01234*x)$$c(x)=1000\cdot\sin(0.01*x)$

Poi per DTW, e sarà estremamente simile, mentre e differiscono quasi quanto con distanza di Manhattan. Se tuttavia si esegue un'analisi in frequenza, e sarà identico rispetto alle loro frequenze, e differiscono solo in grandezza, mentre e hanno una frequenza chiaramente differente.$a$$b$$a$$c$$a$$c$$a$$b$

DTW non è la tua arma magica per risolvere tutte le esigenze di abbinamento delle serie storiche. Fa ipotesi particolari sul tipo di somiglianza che ti interessa . Se ciò non corrisponde ai tuoi dati, non funzionerà bene. A giudicare dalle serie di dati che hai condiviso, non hai bisogno di un allineamento temporale (cosa che DTW fa), ma in realtà invece una normalizzazione appropriata e forse trasformazioni di Fourier. Anche le distanze di attraversamento del treshhold potrebbero funzionare bene per te, vedi ad esempio:

• Ricerca di somiglianza su serie
  storiche basate su query sulla soglia Johannes Aßfalg, Hans-Peter Kriegel, Peer Kröger, Peter Kunath, Alexey Pryakhin e Matthias Renz, EDBT 2006

Negli anni '80 il warping dinamico era il metodo utilizzato per la corrispondenza dei modelli nel riconoscimento vocale. L'obiettivo era cercare di abbinare le serie temporali del discorso analizzato ai modelli memorizzati, generalmente di parole intere. La difficoltà è che le persone parlano a velocità diverse. DTW è stato utilizzato per registrare il modello sconosciuto nel modello. Si chiamava abbinamento "foglio di gomma". Fondamentalmente si cerca attraverso alcune possibilità limitate di come le serie storiche possono essere allungate localmente per ottimizzare l'adattamento globale. Questo approccio ha dimostrato di essere praticamente la stessa cosa dei modelli Markov nascosti.

Innanzitutto, si dice "metrica di distorsione temporale dinamica", tuttavia DTW è una misura della distanza, ma non una metrica (non obbedisce alla disuguaglianza triangolare).

Paper [a] confronta DTW con 12 alternative su 43 set di dati, DTW funziona davvero molto bene per la maggior parte dei problemi.

Se vuoi saperne di più su DTW, puoi dare un'occhiata al tutorial di Keoghs http://www.cs.ucr.edu/~eamonn/Keogh_Time_Series_CDrom.zip (avviso 500 meg)

Il pass è peggy.

C'è anche un tutorial su SAX http://www.cs.ucr.edu/~eamonn/SIGKDD_2007.ppt

[a] Xiaoyue Wang, Hui Ding, Goce Trajcevski, Peter Scheuermann, Eamonn J. Keogh: confronto sperimentale di metodi di rappresentazione e misure di distanza per dati di serie temporali CoRR abs / 1012.2789: (2010)